蜗居

Winter is Coming: German Economy Doomed in Wake of Anti-Russian Sanctions, Scholars Say_我的网站

一 |     While Germany's producer prices observe the biggest rise since records began in 1949, the index has also shown the biggest month-on-month increase, leaping 5.3% from June to July.,"The outlook for the further development [of the economy] is currently noticeably gloomy," and marked by "a high degree of uncertainty," Germany's Finance Ministry said in its August monthly report, quoted by Reuters.,"We have something like a tsunami coming," said Florian Josef Hoffmann, former president of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce East Thuringia and author of "Occupy Economics." "It’s calm water, everything goes slowly down. For example, furniture retail has completely stopped and other things are going down, too. Everything goes slower step by step. But the disaster comes, as I told you, in autumn. And that will be very bad. I can't imagine that this economy can easily survive this really critical situation.",Germans have been experiencing some pre-existing domestic problems as the government turned down nuclear and coal plants in order to switch over to gas and renewables, he noted. However, anti-Russian sanctions which included a sweeping energy embargo "create a real huge problem for the economy because it is based on the cheap Russian gas and now it's cut down by the own will of the government," according to Hoffmann.,"They cut down the gas import [from Russia]," he explained. "So the whole strategy of the past is ruined, and that's the problem. And that makes for great uncertainty because more or less the ship runs against the ice mountain. It's more than uncertainty; I see even the crash coming along for the German economy, not only because of these sanctions, but because of the consequences of the sanctions.",Energy Crisis in EuropeEU Will Not Replace Russian Gas in Full If Nord Stream 1 Remains Shut, Expert Says19 July, 18:20 GMT,The Russo-German chill started with Berlin suspending the Nord Stream 2 project on February 22, 2022. Moscow launched a special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine two days later, after the US, NATO and the EU defied Russia's draft security agreements envisaging ending the transatlantic military alliance's expansion and deployment in Ukraine.,In the aftermath of the operation, the US and its NATO allies have introduced several packages of sanctions. The EU pledged to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels before 2030, following in Washington and London's footsteps. In April, Brussels laid out targets to slash its demand for Russian natural gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022.,Western sanctions also complicated Gazprom's maintenance of the existing Nord Stream 1 infrastructure. The Russian company was forced to reduce shipments via the network in mid-June over delays in the repair of a Siemens-built high-pressure gas pumping turbine in Canada. Ottawa deliberately delayed the return of the turbine, which had undergone maintenance work, back to Europe, citing anti-Russian sanctions. To make matters worse, the Canadian side did not provide proper documentation for the turbine which resulted in further delays. In late July, Gazprom said that it had to stop the operation of another Siemens gas turbine engine for maintenance, which prompted western press to groundlessly claim that Russia was deliberately cutting gas supplies to Europe.,Berlin's energy policy is dictated from Washington for the detriment of the people of Germany, according to Dr. Christian Blex, an AfD lawmaker from the state parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia.,"The sanctions that the hypermoral German government in particular is repeatedly demanding are therefore particularly bad for our country," he said. "Any responsible government would base its actions on the well-being of its own people rather than acting as a vassal of the US.",Energy Crisis in EuropeGermany Should Immediately Launch Nord Stream 2, Bundestag Vice Speaker Says08:42 GMT,Biggest Problems Coming in Autumn, Winter,As of yet, the negative impact of sanctions is not particularly felt by ordinary Germans, according to the observers.,"At the moment we don't feel anything. Big bills are only announced and haven't yet reached the consumers," said Hoffmann. "But the announcements are that the energy prices will go up three to five fold, for many people [this will be] simply unpayable. That’s what is going to come in autumn. Ordinary people prepare by buying canned food or wood or gas stoves. What I also know is, for instance, that not only the ordinary people, but also the cities are preparing. The city of Dusseldorf is cutting down the heating of all gangways in their administration facilities. They are cutting the temperature down from 21 degrees centigrade to 19 or even 17, closing saunas and heating outside swimming pools. They are cutting down lights on public buildings.",While the people are not yet in panic, the German authorities are, according to Hoffmann.,"The government is talking about reducing the turnover tax for gas from 19% to 7% and they are trying to reduce the tax load for pensioners and other instruments to calm down the people," he noted. "But it's ridiculous what they plan when you look at the task of breaking a huge breakdown of the economy. It's only peanuts.",Meanwhile, businesses are expecting climbing power prices, and they are already thinking about how to compensate for that, according to him.,"The German economy looks to the future with serious concerns," echoed Blex. "In contrast to many citizens, business knows exactly what the energy crisis will bring. In public, however, criticism is heard only hesitantly. Fear of green politics and the media is still very great. As the suffering increases, the criticism will become louder… The biggest problems are coming up for the ordinary people with the inflation of food prices and extremely with the power costs. It will hit the poor, the low income class, those who will have to pay not 40, 50 or 60 euros per month for their power, but 200, 400 or even 500. That will make them not only hungry but upset.",WorldGerman Craftsmen Urge Chancellor Scholz to Scrap Sanctions Against Russia13:40 GMT,The AfD lawmaker expects a worsening recession with industrial production falling noticeably in Germany. He forecasts that short-time work will be reintroduced, adding that retailers are already noticing that more and more Germans are making significant savings. After all, the German national debt will continue to rise rapidly, according to him.,For his part, Hoffmann does not rule out that the people will eventually take to the streets en masse, stressing that the German government has already been preparing for this scenario.,"Our Ministry of Defense is preparing a special task force of 1900 soldiers, which have to keep peace within the country," he said. "This is an incredible decision. Our Bundeswehr is an army solely for defense against attacks from the outside. This basic rule is now broken, which means we are now in a totalitarian regime which has no respect for laws and our Constitution. They simply do what they want including censorship. And as one can see, they are preparing for a revolution.",Hoffmann cites German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as saying that the country's forces won't shoot at the people. However, the author expresses skepticism about Scholz' pledge: "It is like 'nobody wants to build a wall' in 1961 and then it was built some weeks later. So, the situation is disastrous," he concluded.。

二 |           　　动动手指点赞、完成简单任务，就能获得可观的兼职报酬，这类“副业机会”常出现在QQ群、微信聊天群和短视频平台等网络场景。一些有兼职增收需求的人被“低门槛、高收益”吸引，随后被要求下载陌生App、垫付资金或者向个人账户转账，由此落入刷单返利骗局。     　　多地公安机关将刷单返利列为高发电信网络诈骗类型。

三 | 此类骗局往往以小额返利获取信任，再通过虚假任务群、收益截图和提现限制等方式，诱导受害者不断投入资金，更有甚者，54个人的群里竟然有53个是托。兼职类诈骗哪些套路正在翻新?      　　四川的刘女士近日在社交平台讲述了自己被拉入刷单群、损失钱款的经历。

四 | 她介绍，一名陌生人通过手机号搜索添加她为微信好友，她误以为对方是客户，便通过了好友申请。

五 |      　　刘女士：过了几天，他就把我拉到一个群里，一直在发几块钱的红包，发了可能有10多个，那一天我应该抢到差不多100多块。

六 | 当时我也不知道他是骗人的，想着可以当兼职，根据他的指示，下了一个不知名的App，他教我们怎么做任务，做了任务直接返钱。     　　看到自己的微信零钱里确实有资金入账，刘女士放松了戒备。她说，第二天开始，群内不仅任务变多了，而且返利的金额也越来越大。为了升到更高级别赚更多返利，刘女士分别两次交了100元和500元，对方也承诺会根据缴纳金额返利。     　　刘女士：做了任务就可以升级代理，拿钱会更多。

七 | 他让我转了30块升级成正式学员，在一天时间会转他两笔钱，第一个是30块，第二个是100块，返130块。在那个App里面会有一个钱包，就返在那里。到了第三天，他就让我再升级成更高的代理，说要先付500块。     　　刘女士坦言，转完500元后，她就意识到问题严重，原本只想动动手指做个兼职赚点小钱，没想到骗子的套路深。     　　刘女士：他又把我们拉进App里面的另外一个群，又有什么ABC的计划，最少的就是付3000元得3900元，返的钱越来越多。但是3000元我没有做，因为我觉得他应该不会还给我了，当时想的是500块应该会还给我，结果都没有。     　　实际上，与刘女士有相同遭遇的人不在少数。全国各地频发同类刷单返利诈骗案件，套路高度相似。     　　近日，山东青岛警方通报的一起典型案例，完整揭露了升级版刷单骗局的险恶套路。市民陆先生在网络学习群结识网友“丽丽”，对方主动推荐公众号点赞兼职，承诺零门槛、秒结佣金。     　　陆先生告诉记者，在初次尝试后，他顺利收到8元小额红包，也因此放下了戒备。随后对方顺势引导他下载专属兼职App，并将自己拉入54人的专属任务群，群内配有专属指导老师，全程讲解所谓的刷单操作流程，营造出正规兼职平台的假象。     　　陆先生：前期发一些红包非常及时，而且金额也比较大，最有意思的一点是他们说如果收到反诈中心的短信，截图发到群里，会转18.88元红包。

八 | 后面我也没有顾虑，就按他们的思路往下做，所以很有欺骗性。     　　陆先生不满足蝇头小利的想法被对方拿捏，第二天群里就有十多人开始分享等级更高的返现截图。

九 | 他说，看着别人几千上万元的入账，真的很容易“上头”。     　　陆先生：平常群里有一些级别高的晒他们的收益截图，收益非常高，一笔就几千块，还有平常他们的饮食、住宿等图片，非常豪华高档。原先我还能很理智，不会多投钱，后面渐渐感觉自己撑不住，很想级别赶紧升上去，1万、3万、10万这样往里投。     　　短短几天，陆先生已累计投入了2300元。第五天，陆先生发现App突然弹出强制升级窗口，要求他追加投入资金至5500元，否则此前投入的所有本金、收益均无法提现。     　　陆先生：我觉得肯定有猫腻，再加上我原先的卡里面800块钱取不出来，反诈中心这边有短信提醒，我才引起重视。入群之后，最迷惑性的就是返钱很快，但是投钱的时候必须先转给他们的工作人员，他们再给你转账，每次转账都换一个人，而且金额都不超过500块钱，银行非常难查出来。     　　陆先生坦言，自己投入资金这段时间，收到过多次反诈短信提示，但已经“上头”的他根本没有理会，直到当地反诈中心的民警当面制止，才让他及时止损。青岛市公安局城阳分局反诈中心办案民警董济龙介绍，陆先生遭遇的案例比较典型，相较于传统诈骗，当下刷单返利诈骗呈现反向洗脑套路常态化、伪装形式多元化、催单手段更具压迫性等特点，给受害者造成大额财产损失。     　　董济龙：第一个是返现点赞之后马上发红包，这个比较吸引人。

十 | 一般的诈骗刷单可能要等一段时间或者定期返利，像这个是及时在群里发;还有是微信群伪装比较好，看起来比较正规，群里有54个成员，每天8点要签到，活跃度确实挺高的，多的时候有几十个人一起都在晒，做了任务今天赚了3000。这个群实际就是诈骗分子控制的群，群成员是54个人，实际上就陆先生自己一个受害人是真实的，其他人都是托，可能就是一个人或两个人在操作53个手机号，扮演不同的角色。     　　董济龙分析，刷单返利诈骗已形成标准化、流程化、闭环式作案链条，行骗步骤环环相扣、精准拿捏受害者心理。     　　董济龙：自己设置App更有吸引力，在平台会看到投入1000元做了几笔任务之后，一天时间内可能返到了2000元，用数字感官刺激你。骗子开始的时候让你尝到甜头，所有刷单返利的共同点，前几笔都能够正常返利取得信任。

十一 | 等受害者大额投入本金后，他们可能就以任务没有完成、资金冻结等借口拒绝提现，最终的大额投入全部被卷走。     　　董济龙提醒，务必摒弃“低投入高回报、足不出户稳赚钱”的侥幸心理，天上不会掉免费馅饼，所有轻松赚钱的副业背后，大概率是精心编织的成熟骗局。     　　董济龙：网络兼职刷单本身就是违法行为，不存在轻松赚钱的好事。

十二 | 凡是让你先电子转账、扫码充值的，一律要拉黑。在一些陌生人拉你入群，入群之后莫名其妙发红包让你去领的，100%是诈骗群。特别是一些中老年朋友容易上当，可能一天能收几块钱的红包，这都是前期的引流。

Current article:http://x7kc.nenyaogecebenliexi.shop/crm/20260826/968763.html

Published on:00:00:14