伐木累

一 |     8月26日消息，据《科创板日报》报道，有消息人士透露，随着阿里发起配售融资，阿里巴巴创始人马云连日增持阿里港股，总额已超6亿港元，彰显对阿里AI前景的坚定看好。    "It was a good night for the MAGA crew," admitted the left-leaning media website Vox on June 29: Utah Sen. Mike Lee, who enthusiastically supports Trump, fended off his more-moderate primary challengers; Gov. Kevin Stitt, who was endorsed by the former president in March, easily won the nomination in Oklahoma; Trump-endorsed Republicans Sen. Darren Bailey and Rep. Mary Miller came out on top in Illinois, to name but a few. Tuesday primaries were a reversal from last week, when the two congressional candidates supported by the former president lost their runoffs in Georgia.,"The America First movement is still in a pull position in Republican primaries," says Rory McShane, a Republican political consultant and strategist based in Texas. "Faithful Republican voters don't want a return to the unprincipled, go-along-to-get-along leadership of decades past.",According to McShane, the so-called "Trump camp" in the Republican Party is "extremely strong." Furthermore, "even candidates running against Trump-endorsed candidates are focusing their messaging on their similarities to President Trump," in order to command support among Republican voters, he remarks.,For their part, Democrats launched an unprecedented effort to interfere in GOP nominating contests across the country to fund "extreme right" candidates and attacking more moderate Republican hopefuls, according to Politico. Democratic-affiliated entities have spent millions on political ad contracts as the Dems believe that their candidates will easily defeat GOP MAGA nominees in the midterms. However, it appears that they have miscalculated, according to Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa.,"Democrats tried to influence some races to get more conservative candidates as opponents," he says. "They weren't very successful in that strategy. Plus, there's always the possibility that the more conservative candidate could end up winning in the general election.",Britt's Alabama Primary Victory: Why a Trump Endorsement is a Tricky Thing23 June, 16:39 GMT,MAGA Movement Alive, GOP Has Plenty Trump Cards,Despite the Dems smearing of the MAGA camp especially following the controversial Capitol Hill incident of January 6, 2020, the pro-Trump movement is going on, according to the observers.,"The MAGA movement is alive and well, steamrolling traditional milquetoast Republicans," says McShane. "President Trump is undoubtedly the leader of the movement, but it exists outside of him also.",Still, one should not see Trump's endorsement as a magic spell, since some candidates backed by the former president won and some did not, according to Hagle.,"The dynamics of a particular set of candidates and of the issues in an area make a difference," the political scientist explains. "Whether a candidate actively supports Trump is likely secondary to how he or she handles the issues. In the post-Trump era many voters want someone who is willing to fight for the issues that are important to them. Republicans, in particular, have often been disappointed in the officeholders who don't seem to fight on the important issues. That's one reason why Trump did so well even though some were turned off by his personal style.",However, there has also been the case where Mehmet Oz, a GOP candidate for Pennsylvania, heavily capitalized on Trump's endorsement but dropped the president's brand immediately after winning the primaries. Observers warn that this may happen again, casting doubt on Alabama GOP winner Katie Britt's loyalty to the ex-president, in particular.,In general, the GOP has a lot of trump cards in these midterms, starting with Joe Biden's botched withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 and ending with skyrocketing inflation and soaring food and energy prices, which the majority of the US voters blame on the president despite the latter's attempt to shift the responsibility on his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.,"The issues for this election are the usual 'kitchen table' issues such as jobs, the economy, and healthcare," says Hagle. "Inflation is a particular problem and we see other issues where Republicans find it easy to criticize Democrats and the Biden administration (e.g., baby formula shortage, other supply issues, immigration, rising crime).",© SputnikDonald Trump's 'Save America' campaign-style rally in Sarasota, Florida, 3 June, 2021Donald Trump's 'Save America' campaign-style rally in Sarasota, Florida, 3 June, 2021© Sputnik,Will Trump Run Again in 2024?,It's still unclear, however, whether Donald Trump himself will toss his hat into the ring in 2024.,Even though President Trump's support among Republicans isn't going anywhere, McShane doesn't think that the former president wants to seek a new bid.,"I don't think it is entirely clear at this point how strong Trump might be going forward," says Hagle. "One thing we often see in those thinking about a presidential run is greater participation in the preceding midterm elections. We've seen Trump be fairly active in the primaries. We'll see if he continues to be active in the midterms. We'll also see the extent to which candidates want him to participate on their behalf.",Given the problems facing the Biden administration, Trump and his supporters may believe that Donald has a good chance of defeating Joe or any other Democratic contender in 2024. At the same time, "given how successful the left was in demonizing him, many Republicans might prefer someone who is as strong as Trump on the issues but doesn't have the same personal style," according to the political scientist.,"This is why Governor DeSantis is getting a lot of attention," he stresses, referring to the 46th governor of Florida endorsed by Trump back in 2018.,Nevertheless, a new poll by Morning Consult/Politico released on 29 June clearly indicated that Trump has maintained his position among GOP voters, with the majority saying they'd vote for him in a 2024 Republican presidential primary. "Even though support for DeSantis appears to be on the rise, Trump continues to hold a commanding lead over the governor's 22%," Newsweek remarked on Wednesday.。     除马云外，阿里核心管理层同步密集增持，释放强烈看多信号。    据此前报道，港交所25日消息称，阿里巴巴集团主席蔡崇信再次增持约8200万港元阿里巴巴股票。这是阿里新股配售后，蔡崇信个人连续第二个交易日出手，两日累计增持金额已达1.6亿港元。    回溯此前动作，8月24日，蔡崇信已联合阿里巴巴CEO吴泳铭同步进场增持，二人合计斥资约1.2亿港元购入阿里股份。

二 |     创始人与核心管理层接连大手笔增持形成合力，充分印证了内部对公司AI转型战略、长期经营价值的高度认可。据统计，近期马云、蔡崇信、吴泳铭三人合计增持金额已超8亿港元。     此次管理层增持的核心背景，是阿里巴巴落地的AI战略融资计划。8月23日晚间，阿里巴巴正式公布大额配售方案，拟以每股112.7港元的价格配售7.1亿股新股份，整体募资总额高达800亿港元（约合102亿美元）。    本次配售创下两大关键纪录，既是阿里巴巴2019年登陆港交所以来首次股权配售融资，也是香港资本市场历史上规模最大的主要后续发行交易。    值得关注的是，本次800亿港元募资100%全部投向全栈AI能力建设与AI基础设施扩张，重点覆盖算力基建扩容、自研芯片迭代、大模型研发优化、AI场景商业化落地等核心领域。    强劲的战略吸引力也获得全球资本认可，据报道，本次配售获得全球主权财富基金等长线机构踊跃认购，最终实现近3倍超额认购。

三 |     回到阿里经营基本面，当前传统电商业务承压，AI已成为阿里巴巴突破增长瓶颈、开启第二增长曲线的核心抓手。    根据阿里巴巴2027财年第一季度财报（数据截至2026年6月30日），公司当期整体收入达2689.53亿元，同比增长9%；经营利润151.61亿元，同比下降57%，利润波动主要源于AI赛道前期高强度资本投入。     不过阿里AI业务已展现出强劲的增长势能，商业化落地显著。数据显示，阿里AI相关产品年化收入已突破495亿元，预计2026年下季度将突破100亿美元。    同时，管理层明确了中长期AI发展目标，预判2030年阿里云外部商业化收入有望达到1000亿美元，目标利润率稳定在20%，且AI相关资本开支有望在2至3年内完成回本。    高增长赛道必然伴随前期高强度投入，现阶段阿里AI业务正处于“以投入换市场、以布局赢未来”的关键阶段。     财报数据显示，该季度阿里巴巴资本性支出高达676.78亿元，同比大幅增长75%，受大额资本投入影响，公司自由现金流由上年同期净流出188.15亿元，扩大至446.7亿元，短期现金流承压，核心为AI全产业链布局蓄力。    经过长期持续深耕，阿里巴巴已搭建起全栈AI产业体系，业务覆盖底层算力、自研芯片、通用大模型、行业落地应用等全链条，形成完整的AI技术与商业闭环。

四 |     截至8月25日港股收盘，阿里巴巴港股报114.2港元/股，公司总市值达2.19万亿港元。